Diverging Paths: How MISO and ERCOT Respond to Rising Power Demand
- May 21
- 2 min read
Recent U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Today in Energy reports highlight how different parts of the United States are responding to rising electricity demand in different ways. While both MISO and ERCOT are absorbing significant load growth, including demand from data centers, their generation mix responses continue to diverge.
Coal remains competitive in MISO
Coal-fired generation remains economically competitive in MISO. The latest EIA Today in Energy analysis attributes this to rising wholesale electricity prices alongside relatively stable coal fuel costs.
Highlights
Coal dark spreads, a measure of gross generation margins, increased from $11/MWh in 2024 to $23/MWh in 2025, averaging $28/MWh during January-April 2026, well above gas spark spreads.
Rising wholesale electricity prices and relatively stable coal costs have strengthened short-run coal economics in the region.
During January-April 2026, coal dark spreads averaged $28/MWh, compared with a $9/MWh gas spark spread.
Solar overtakes coal in ERCOT
In contrast, ERCOT's generation mix continues to shift toward utility-scale solar. Solar generation is projected to surpass coal on an annual basis for the first time in 2026, driven by continued solar additions and rapid load growth across Texas.
Highlights
Utility-scale solar generation is forecast to reach 78 TWh in 2026, compared with 60 TWh for coal, marking the first year solar is expected to exceed coal generation on an annual basis.
Solar's lead is expected to widen in 2027, with generation projected at 99 TWh versus 66 TWh for coal.
Texas is expected to account for approximately 40%Â of all U.S. utility-scale solar additions in 2026, while natural gas remains the region's largest source of electricity generation.
Conclusion
Different resource mixes, fuel economics, and market structures continue to shape different outcomes across U.S. power markets. As electricity demand grows, regional market dynamics will remain an important driver of generation investment, resource planning, and grid development.